TAILIEUCHUNG - Forecasting for Marketing by J. Scott Armstrong The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We describe how to choose. | Published in Graham J. Hooley and Michael K. Hussey Eds. Quantitative Methods in Marketing Second Edition. London International Thompson Business Press 1999 pp. 92-119. Forecasting for Marketing J. Scott Armstrong The Wharton School University of Pennsylvania Roderick J. Brodie Department of Marketing University of Auckland Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions Delphi role playing conjoint analysis judgmental bootstrapping analogies extrapolation rule-based forecasting expert systems and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size actions of decision makers market share sales and financial outcomes. In general there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager s domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting expert systems and econometric methods. We describe how to choose a forecasting method and provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts including such procedures as scenarios. INTRODUCTION Forecasting has long been important to marketing practitioners. For example Dalrymple 1987 in his survey of 134 . companies found that 99 percent prepared formal forecasts when they used formal marketing plans. In Dalrymple 1975 93 percent of the companies sampled indicated that sales forecasting was one of the most critical aspects or a very important aspect of their company s success. Jobber Hooley and Sanderson 1985 in a survey of 353 marketing directors from British textile firms found that sales forecasting was the most common of nine activities on which they reported. Managers forecasting needs vary considerably. They may need to forecast the size and growth of a market or product category. When strategic issues are being considered they need

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