TAILIEUCHUNG - 2011 Investment Outlook: Commercial Real Estate

This paper doesn’t outline how to measure and report social sustainability. This task has already been undertaken by the author and presented elsewhere (see Kimmet and Wikstrom 2005). The much less ambitious objective of shoring up the case for such measurement frameworks is all that’s attempted here. Arguably though, this is at least as important as how to do it, given that many real estate investors will want to evaluate potential investments in their own way once it is clearly understood what social sustainability is, and why it should be taken seriously. . | Marcus ftMillichap Real Estate Investment Services 2011 Investment Outlook Commercial Real Estate Navigating Short-Term Turbulence Betting on the Long Term Contents Economy Page 2 Taking Stock of the Last 12 Months Page 2 Sentiment Eclipses Fundamentals Page 3 Ripple Effects of a Seismic Recession Page 3 Housing Wavers Without Government Crutches Page 4 First Domino of True Expansion Page 5 Fed Tightening Spending Cuts Tax Increases Inevitable Page 5 2011 Economic Outlook Page 6 Distressed Real Estate Page 7 Property Markets Page 8 Capital Markets Page 14 Seeds of Recovery Page 15 Investment Strategy Page 16 The Great Recession exacted an expensive toll on the commercial real estate sector. Vacancies approached or exceeded prior cyclical highs as million jobs were lost and sales volume plunged 85 percent from peak. Despite much hype regarding the lackluster recovery expectations should be more realistic about what it will take to repair the damage of a recession so different from the typical downturn and much more severe than the worst contractions since the 1930s. The economy has come a long way from what seemed like a freefall with core retail sales corporate earnings and initial unemployment claims back to pre-recession levels and private-sector job growth totaling million. Fears of another recession global debt levels uncertainty regarding taxes and regulation are confidence-killers among . companies that must drive a fundamentals-based recovery to heal the consumer sector. The recovery may be lacking momentum but evidence suggests contraction is unlikely barring an unexpected shock. Companies have wrung maximum productivity and need more help leading to improved if below-average job growth in 2011. Election results should contribute to reducing uncertainty and move the political agenda more to the center with likely compromises on key issues. The impact of the Fed s bond purchases may be questionable but the message of readiness to shore up .

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