TAILIEUCHUNG - Seventh Edition - The Addison-Wesley Series in Economics Phần 10

Theo quan điểm của họ, thời gian này là một sai lầm, và sự tương ứng chặt chẽ tiền và lạm phát chắc chắn để tái khẳng định bản thân. Tuy nhiên, điều này chưa xảy ra. | 648 PART VI Monetary Theory http usbudget The Economic Report of the President reports debt levels and gross domestic product along with many other economic statistics. in interest rates and by rapid financial innovation that made the correct measurement of money far more difficult see Chapter 3 . In their view this period was an aberration and the close correspondence of money and inflation is sure to reassert itself. However this has not yet occurred. What is the underlying cause of the increased rate of money growth that we see occurring from 1960 to 1980 We have identified two possible sources of inflationary monetary policy government adherence to a high employment target and budget deficits. Let s see if budget deficits can explain the move to an inflationary monetary policy by plotting the ratio of government debt to GDP in Figure 9. This ratio provides a reasonable measure of whether government budget deficits put upward pressure on interest rates. Only if this ratio is rising might there be a tendency for budget deficits to raise interest rates because the public is then being asked to hold more government bonds relative to their capacity to buy them. Surprisingly over the course of the 20-year period from 1960 to 1980 this ratio was falling not rising. Thus . budget deficits in this period did not raise interest rates and so could not have encouraged the Fed to expand the money supply by buying bonds. Therefore Figure 9 tells us that we can rule out budget deficits as a source of the rise in inflation in this period. Because politicians were frequently bemoaning the budget deficits in this period why did deficits not lead to an increase in the debt-GDP ratio The reason is that in this period . budget deficits were sufficiently small that the increase in the stock of government debt was still slower than the growth in nominal GDP and the ratio of debt to GDP declined. You can see that interpreting budget deficit numbers is a tricky

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