TAILIEUCHUNG - Ebook Macroeconomics (7/E): Part 2

Part 2 book “Macroeconomics” has contents: Introduction to economic fluctuations, the open economy revisited, aggregate supply and the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, a dynamic model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, stabilization policy, and other contents. | PA R T I V Business Cycle Theory: The Economy in the Short Run This page intentionally left blank CHAPTER 9 Introduction to Economic Fluctuations The modern world regards business cycles much as the ancient Egyptians regarded the overflowing of the phenomenon recurs at intervals, it is of great importance to everyone, and natural causes of it are not in sight. —John Bates Clark, 1898 E conomic fluctuations present a recurring problem for economists and policymakers. On average, the real GDP of the United States grows between 3 and percent per year. But this long-run average hides the fact that the economy’s output of goods and services does not grow smoothly. Growth is higher in some years than in others; sometimes the economy loses ground, and growth turns negative. These fluctuations in the economy’s output are closely associated with fluctuations in employment. When the economy experiences a period of falling output and rising unemployment, the economy is said to be in recession. A recent recession began in late 2007. From the third quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2008, the economy’s production of goods and services expanded by a paltry percent—well below the normal rate of growth. Real GDP then plunged sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. The unemployment rate rose from percent in November 2007 to percent in March 2009. In early 2009, as this book was going to press, the end of the recession was not yet in sight, and many feared that the downturn would get significantly worse before things started to get better. Not surprisingly, the recession dominated the economic news of the time, and addressing the problem was high on the agenda of the newly elected president, Barack Obama. Economists call these short-run fluctuations in output and employment the business cycle. Although this term suggests that economic fluctuations are regular and predictable, they are not. Recessions are actually as

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