TAILIEUCHUNG - Has the rate of economic growth changed? Evidence and lessons for public policy

To their credit, some highway advocates support tolling of added capacity to recover costs and control congestion, but this only addresses two of the external costs of induced travel. Only if all the pricing reforms described above are fully implemented can roadway expansion be justified and efficient. Efficient pricing and smart investments would not eliminate automobile travel demand, but this analysis indicates that at the margin (relative to current travel patterns) many Americans would prefer to drive less and rely more on alternative modes if they had more efficient pricing, and alternative modes were more convenient, comfortable and affordable. This. | RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND DP2003 07 Has the rate of economic growth changed Evidence and lessons for public policy Matthew D Shapiro September 2003 JEL classification 047 056 Discussion Paper Series DP2003 07 Has the rate of economic growth changed Evidence and lessons for public policy Abstract1 New Zealand s recent rate of economic growth has remained strong despite a worldwide recession. Policymakers the press and the public have nonetheless been concerned that New Zealand s economic performance has lagged along some important dimensions. This paper presents some new estimates of the rate of technological change in New Zealand and compares them to similar measures for the United States and elsewhere. New Zealand has not participated in the increased pace of technological progress seen elsewhere since the mid-1990s. Technological change creates sustainable increases in income and wages. Hence it should be an important focus of policy discussions surrounding economic growth. The paper also addresses how public policy should take into account technological change especially given uncertainty about future prospects for its growth and the difficulties of public policy in changing its growth. This paper was prepared while the author was a Professorial Fellow in Monetary Economics at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Victoria University of Wellington under the auspices of the Victoria University of Wellington Foundation. He is gratefully acknowledges this support and the hospitality of these institutions and their staffs. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Workshop on March 21 2003 under the title Regime Shifts in Economic Growth Assessing the Evidence and the Response of Monetary Policy. He thanks David Archer Malcolm Edey Jacek Krawczyk and participants at seminar and conference presentations for their comments. The Treasury kindly provided him a preliminary version of its industry dataset. The results are .

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