TAILIEUCHUNG - Zambia 2012

Zambia’s economic growth slowed to in 2011 from in 2010, mainly as a result of a weaker mining sector performance. However, the medium-term economic outlook appears favourable, underpinned by sustained expansion in agriculture, construction, manufacturing, transport and communications, and by a rebound in mining. Inflation is projected to remain in single digits, reflecting prudent monetary policy, while the objective of exchange rate policy is to maintain external competitiveness. Increasing domestic revenue collection remains a priority for the medium term and large infrastructure developments will require additional resources. The government plans to raise USD 700 million (US dollars) via a bond issue in 2012 to. | Zambia The outlook for the Zambian economy remains favourable in the medium term underpinned by robust growth and single-digit inflation. The economy is projected to grow in 2012 picking up to in 2013 while inflation should remain in single digits at and respectively. The country however remains vulnerable to external shocks with a sluggish global economic recovery a concern for its key mining exports. High youth unemployment and slow progress in poverty reduction may also overshadow the gains made from strong growth and limited inflation. Overview Zambia s economic growth slowed to in 2011 from in 2010 mainly as a result of a weaker mining sector performance. However the medium-term economic outlook appears favourable underpinned by sustained expansion in agriculture construction manufacturing transport and communications and by a rebound in mining. Inflation is projected to remain in single digits reflecting prudent monetary policy while the objective of exchange rate policy is to maintain external competitiveness. Increasing domestic revenue collection remains a priority for the medium term and large infrastructure developments will require additional resources. The government plans to raise USD 700 million US dollars via a bond issue in 2012 to cover a funding gap for infrastructure projects. This infrastructure investment is expected to boost growth by up to 2 percentage points per annum. Risks to the outlook include Zambia s vulnerability to external shocks and a sluggish global economic recovery which could reduce demand for exports. Moreover maintaining investor confidence has emerged as a key issue after the government reversed the privatisation of Zambia s telecoms company. Tackling high youth unemployment and poverty remains a top priority with as much as 60 of the population below the poverty line although there are wide disparities between rural and urban areas. Part of this high level of poverty is due to lack of employment .

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