TAILIEUCHUNG - An estimation of the economic impact of chronic noncommunicable diseases in selected countries

We investigate this possibility using a two-stage-least-squares approach: the first stage involves a regression of actual fiscal consolidation on the forecast of fiscal consolidation; and the second stage is a regression of the growth forecast error on the instrumented values of actual fiscal consolidation obtained in the first stage. As Table 3 reports, the first stage is strong, and the slope coefficient is (t-statistic = ). This coefficient close to 1 indicates that, on average, actual consolidation was neither smaller nor larger than expected. 27 The second stage indicates that a 1 percent of GDP fiscal consolidation is associated. | Working paper ỂỀB yy r d .Hea. th yWjy Organization An estimation of the economic impact of chronic noncommunicable diseases in selected countries Dele Abegunde Anderson Stanciole 2006 World Health Organization Department of Chronic Diseases and Health Promotion CHP http chp 1 Introduction The epidemiological burden of chronic diseases and their risk factors is increasing worldwide especially in low and middle income countries where chronic diseases have been assumed to be less common. Projections indicate that 35 million of the 58 million worldwide expected deaths in 2005 were due to chronic noncommunicable diseases. A projected 388 million people will die of chronic disease in the next ten years. The majority of these deaths will occur in the most productive age groups 80 of the deaths will be in low and middle income countries. Despite global successes such as the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control the first legal instrument designed to reduce tobacco-related deaths and disease around the world chronic diseases have generally been neglected in international health and development work. Many countries do not have clear national policies for the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases. Low and middle income countries must also deal with the practical realities of limited resources and a double burden of infectious and chronic diseases. Aside from the epidemiological evidence demonstrating the chronic disease burden and a few cost of illness studies related to chronic diseases in a few countries compelling evidence on the economic impact of chronic disease has been starkly lacking. This paper attempts to fill the gap by presenting estimates of the economic impact of selected chronic diseases - heart disease stroke and diabetes. These estimates were also presented in the recent World Health Organization publication Preventing chronic diseases a vital investment. The primary objective of this analysis was to explore and demonstrate the .

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