TAILIEUCHUNG - An Analyst's View Of The Uses And Abuses Of Modeling For Decisionmaking

It is an open question as to whether or not models, simulations, and games (MSGs) are being used by the one hand, it may be argued, these techniques are being used extensively:the quantity of activity is the other hand, close inspection of much of this activity reveals a divergence of purpose between those who build and those who use MSGs having a policy-assisting i | AN ANALYST S VIEW OF THE USES AND ABUSES OF MODELING FOR DECISIONMAKING Garry D. Brewer January 1975 P-5395 The Rand Paper Series Papers are issued by The Rand Corporation as a service to its professional staff. Their purpose is to facilitate the exchange of ideas among those who share the author s research interests Papers are not reports prepared in fulfillment of Rand s contracts or grants. Views expressed in a Paper are the author s own and are not necessarily shared by Rand or its research sponsors. The Rand Corporation Santa Monica California 90406 i i i ABSTRACT It is an open question as to whether or not models simulations and games MSGs are being used by policymakers. On the one hand it may be argued these techniques are being used extensively the quantity of activity is considerable. On the other hand close inspection of much of this activity reveals a divergence of purpose between those who build and those who use MSGs having a policyassisting intent users are inadequately trained to know what they are buying from technical experts and this inadequacy also exists with respect to the experts knowing or caring about the users. What results are ill-developed controls over the building and use of MSGs because 1 the actual users do not know how the information contained in the model was generated and 2 the experts responsible for the information contained In the model have abnegated responsibility for their products through disinterest contempt and ignorance. Ameliorative requirements are outlined and focus on professionalism documentation and institutional .

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• modeling
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