TAILIEUCHUNG - Analyses of GARVEE Bonding Capacity 2012

We have described in detail the benefits to the distressed countries of issuing Trichet bonds. There are also significant benefits to the bond holders which provide incentives for them to accept the voluntary swap. Bond holders will receive in a Trichet bond a higher quality bond than will be easily traded in a liquid market. The debt holder EU banks may be able to do the swap in Trichet bonds for the sovereign debt they hold in their capital accounts without writing the marked-to-market loss in their books, thereby escaping bankruptcy | Analyses of GARVEE Bonding Capacity 2012 Analyses for the California Transportation Commission May 2012 State Treasurer Bill Lockyer Table of Contents Executive Summary i I. Purpose of Analyses 1 II. The 2004 and 2008 GARVEE Financings 1 III. Need for Sensitivity Analyses 2 IV. Information Sources 3 V. Summary of Alternative Assumptions 3 VI. Summary of Results 5 VII. California Transportation Commission Policy 6 VIII. Recent Events 6 IX. Conclusion 7 Attachment A Federal Deposits into the State Highway Account Attachment B Detailed Assumptions for Sensitivity Analyses Attachment C Detailed Worksheet for Sensitivity Analyses Attachment D Detailed Summary Tables for Sensitivity Analyses Analyses of GARVEE Bonding Capacity Executive Summary These analyses are provided to the California Transportation Commission Commission to assist in its compliance with the provisions of Government Code Sections 14550 through requiring the Commission to prepare in conjunction with the State Treasurer s Office STO an annual analysis of California s bonding capacity for issuing Grant Anticipation Revenue Vehicles GARVEE bonds and notes. GARVEE bonds are capital market borrowings which are repaid from federal transportation funds that are deposited into the State Highway Account. The bonding capacity takes into account the current maximum annual debt service of the Series 2004A Bonds and Series 2008A Bonds. Legislation was enacted to ensure California had the necessary state legislative authority to make use of this financing tool for accelerating high priority transportation projects. The legislation became effective January 1 2000 and was further amended by AB 438 Chapter 113 Statutes of 2001 AB 3026 Chapter 438 Statutes of 2002 SB 1098 Chapter 212 Statutes of 2004 and SB 1507 Chapter 793 Statutes of 2004 . The issuance of additional GARVEE bonds is subject to Government Code Section which states that the Treasurer may not authorize the issuance of additional

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