TAILIEUCHUNG - Possible influences of air pollution, dust- and sandstorms on the Indian monsoon

The inclusion of a smooth function of time in a regression model introduces important sta- tistical generally do not know precisely the complexity of the seasonal and long-term trends in themortality time series or in the pollution time series. Therefore, a controversial issue is determining how much smoothness we should allow for the smooth function of time. This decision is critical because it determines the amount of residual temporal variation in mortality that is available to estimate the air pollution effect. Oversmoothing the series (thereby under- smoothing the residuals) can leave temporal cycles in the residuals that can produce confounding bias; undersmoothing the series (thereby oversmoothing. | Possible influences of air pollution dust- and sandstorms on the Indian monsoon by William . Lau1 Kyu-Myong Kim2 Christina N. Hsu1 and Brent N. Holben3 Introduction In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India human health and safety problems caused by air pollution are becoming increasingly serious due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants from waste gas emissions and from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash floods or prolonged drought has caused major loss of human life and damage to crops and property with devastating societal impacts. Historically airpollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically linked and need to be studied jointly Lau et al. 2008 . Fundamentally aerosols can affect precipitation through radiative effects of suspended particles in the atmosphere direct effect and or by interfering and changing the cloud and precipitation formation 1 Laboratory for Atmospheres NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD 20771 2 Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center University of Maryland Baltimore County Baltimore MD 21228 3 Laboratory for Hydrosphere and Biosphere NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD 20771 processes indirect effect . Based on their optical properties aerosols can be classified into two types those that absorb solar radiation and those that do not. Both types of aerosols scatter sunlight and reduce the amount of solar radiation from reaching the Earth s surface causing it to cool. The surface cooling increases atmospheric stability and reduces convection potential. Absorbing aerosols however in addition to cooling the surface can heat the atmosphere. The heating of the atmosphere may reduce the amount of low clouds by increased evaporation in cloud drops. The heating however may induce

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