TAILIEUCHUNG - World Bank Office, Beijing Quarterly Update

The French position was partly accommodated in the ECOFIN meeting on 20 June, by making the attainment of a close-to-balance position for France contingent on highly optimistic growth rates, . it implicitly allowed the deadline for the achievement of the medium-term position to be missed. Italy took this outcome as a common understanding in the Council that allowed for a focus on growth and more flexibility in the fiscal framework. The government started then openly to discuss tax reductions, which would delay the attainment of the close to balance or in surplus position. These proposals were eventually included in the Documento di Programmazione Economica e Finanziaria, which. | World Bank Office Beijing -fr w w t wt china Quarterly Update February 2008 The World Bank quarterly update provides an update on recent economic and social developments and policies in China and present findings from ongoing World Bank work on China. The update is produced by a team from the Beijing Office with support from the China country team. Questions and feedback can be addressed to Li Li lli2@ . China Quarterly Update February 2008 Overview China s economic growth has begun to inch down from its record rates earlier in 2007 while food prices are lifting inflation. GDP grew percent in 2007 making it the fifth year in a row with double digit growth. The slowdown in the 4th quarter was due to a lower contribution of net exports as external demand slowed partly offset by stronger domestic demand. Food prices lifted headline inflation to percent in December but there is to date no apparent significant overall excess demand or spill-over of high food prices into general inflation. The global outlook has weakened and is uncertain but China is likely to grow robustly and is well-positioned to stimulate demand if needed. The slowdown in the global economy should affect China s exports and investment in the tradable sector but the momentum of domestic demand should remain robust and a limited global slowdown could contribute to rebalancing of the economy. We now project a solid percent GDP growth for 2008. If the global slowdown will be more pronounced China is in a strong macroeconomic position to stimulate demand by easing fiscal policy and or credit controls. Inflation concerns make lowering interest rates or relaxing liquidity management less obvious. Uncertainties in the outlook call for vigilance and flexibility. Macroeconomic policy needs to address the challenges of inflation and persistent external surpluses. Overall price pressures should ease in 2008 as some factors behind high food prices .

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