TAILIEUCHUNG - Aggregate bankruptcy probabilities and their role in explaining banks’ loan losses

With the increase of wealth and commerce in Europe, private bankers established themselves in all the principal cities and towns. They re- ceived money on deposit; they managed the money affairs of states and individuals; they lent money to such borrowers as could give the neces- sary security; and they bought and sold bills of exchange, bullion, and coin. The English bankers were not slow in perceiving the profits which the Bank of England derived from the circulation of its notes. They imitated its example. They issued their own notes, payable on demand; and these notes, according to the credit of the issuers, obtained a greater or less circulation in. | ANO 2004 2 Oslo February 26 2004 Working Paper Research Department Aggregate bankruptcy probabilities and their role in explaining banks loan losses by Olga Andreeva 3 NB NORGES BANK Working papers fra Norges Bank kan bestilles over e-post posten@ eller ved henvendelse til Norges Bank Abonnementsservice Postboks 1179 Sentrum 0107 Oslo Telefon 22 31 63 83 Telefaks 22 41 31 05 Fra 1999 og senere er publikasjonene tilgjengelige som pdf-filer pâ under Publikasjoner . Working papers inneholder forskningsarbeider og utredninger som vanligvis ikke har fâtt sin endelige form. Hensikten er blant annet at forfatteren kan motta kommentarer fra kolleger og andre interesserte. Synspunkter og konklusjoner i arbeidene stâr for forfatternes regning. Working papers from Norges Bank can be ordered by e-mail posten@ or from Norges Bank Subscription service . 1179 Sentrum N-0107Oslo Norway. Tel. 47 22 31 63 83 Fax. 47 22 41 31 05 Working papers from 1999 onwards are available as pdf-files on the bank s web site under Publications . Norges Bank s working papers present research projects and reports not usually in their final form and are intended inter alia to enable the author to benefit from the comments of colleagues and other interested parties. Views and conclusions expressed in working papers are the responsibility of the authors alone. ISSN 0801-2504 printed 1502-8143 online ISBN 82-7553-225-6 printed 82-7553-226-4 online Aggregate bankruptcy probabilities and their role in explaining banks loan losses Olga Andreeva 26 February 2004 Abstract Increased competition forces banks to narrow lending margins and at the same time relaxed lending standards worsen the pool of borrowers. To preserve sound banking system it is important task to monitor credit risk as one of the dominant factors leading to bank failures and financial vulnerability. Norwegian banks traditionally have a large share of loans to .

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