TAILIEUCHUNG - Weekly Focus Fiscal cliff negotiations will go to the edge

Wallace attempts to analyse central bank interest rate control in a cashless, Arrow- Debreu economy. The model incorporates only the unit of account function of money and exhibits a version of the classical dichotomy in which arbitrary accounting prices are independent of the equilibrium real relative price vector. A model with these properties is incapable of providing a theory of the price level or inflation, nominal interest rate rules or justifying a role for the central bank. Nominal magnitudes are nominal in name only and Wallace’s analysis is without theoretical foundations. It generates a series of conceptual and logical puzzles | Macro Research Danske Bank Investment Research 21 December 2012 Weekly Focus Fiscal cliff negotiations will go to the edge Market movers ahead Market attention is likely to centre on the fiscal cliff negotiations as the deadline is moving closer. President Barack Obama and House speaker John Boehner still have five days after Christmas to strike a deal but it is possible that the US will go over the cliff . We expect some improvement in the ISM and a decent employment figure when these are released in the first week of the new year. Global update Data in the euro area has started to surprise on the upside. This week it was the German ifo figures that signalled improvement going forward. The Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory in Japan. The new prime minister s first priority will be to push Japan out of recession with additional fiscal easing and increased pressure on the Bank of Japan for more aggressive QE. The Riksbank cut the leading interest rate by 25bp to 1 as expected. Looking ahead we expect the Riksbank to deliver another rate cut in April. Norges Bank kept rates unchanged. We expect Norges Bank to hike rates twice in the course of 2013. Focus Nordic Outlook - December 2012 20 December. The Nordics are all true triple-A characterised by strong fundamentals. Denmark is heading for moderate growth - a fully fledged recovery is a long way off. The Swedish economy is set for lower growth and we expect unemployment to increase due to weakness in exports. Norway is still growing at a strong rate but the non-oil industry is under pressure and the housing market is beginning to give cause for concern. Finland is on the verge of recession and growth is not likely to pick up much in the near future. Contents Market movers Global Scandi EMEA Latest research from Danske Bank . 10 Rates The outlook for FX More dollar and yen weakness in 2013. 12 Credit Happy Holi Financial Macroeconomic .

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