TAILIEUCHUNG - THE FACTORS AFFECTING THE USE OF ELDERLY CARE AND THE NEED FOR RESOURCES BY 2030 IN FINLAND

The belief that children will take care of the parents in the old age is eroding in India where the family size has been cut down as a result of the demographic process (Dandelkar, 1996). The situation in the urban areas shows a rejection of older people by the next generation and this is spreading to rural areas (Desai, 1985). In the nuclear family regime, the position of the aged becomes more vulnerable and is treated as a burden to the family (Nayar, 1992). The social negligence of the aged occurs due to cultural, social and economic relations within the. | VATT-TUTKIMUKSIA 99 VATT-RESEARCH REPORTS Tarmo Raty - Kalevi Luoma Erkki Makinen - Marja Vaarama THE FACTORS AFFECTING THE USE OF ELDERLY CARE AND THE NEED FOR RESOURCES BY 2030 IN FINLAND Valtion taloudellinen tutkimuskeskus Government Institute for Economic Research Helsinki 2003 ISBN 951-561-454-6 ISSN 0788-5008 Valtion taloudellinen tutkimuskeskus Government Institute for Economic Research Hameentie 3 00530 Helsinki Finland Email ISBN 951-563-441-5 Suomen itsenaisyyden juhlarahasto Sitra Finnish National Fund for Research and Development Sitra Itamerentori 2 00181 Helsinki Finland Email Oy Nord Print Ab Helsinki June 2003 RATY TARMO LUOMA KALEVI MAKINEN ERKKI VAARAMA MARJA THE EXPECTED USAGE 2 OF CARE AND RESOURCES IN FINNISH ELDERLY CARE BY 2030. Helsinki VATT Valtion taloudellinen tutkimuskeskus Government Institute for Economic Research 2003 B ISSN 0788-5008 No 99 . ISBN 951-561-454-6. ISBN 951-563-441-5. Abstract A nation-wide interview survey data is used to analyse by means of ordered logit models the impacts of age dependency and other factors on probabilities to use home and community care for the elderly. With these models and the age profile of the institutional care we have made projections of service specific dependency age and gender distributions by 2030. In our scenarios we assume that improvements in functional ability of the elderly will by 2030 increase the average starting-age for using home and community care by three or five years and delay the admission into institutional care by three years. We also make an assumption that quality of care is raised by increasing staffing levels in the care of elderly to the level which was considered sufficient for good quality care according to recommendations made by a recent expert working group. To meet the resource needs caused by the rise in the projected number of elderly population would require annual increase in operating costs. Increasing

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