TAILIEUCHUNG - Democracy and Economic Growth

Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature, no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the impact of political democracy on economic growth. This paper challenges the consensus of an inconclusive relationship with a meta-analytic review and a quantitative assessment of the democracy-growth literature. | Democracy and Economic Growth A meta-analysis Hristos Doucouliagos and Mehmet Ulubasoglu School of Accounting Economics and Finance Deakin University Australia Faculty of Business and Law Deakin University 221 Burwood Highway Burwood 3125 Victoria Australia douc@ Acknowledgments Greg Tangey provided excellent research assistance with the construction of the dataset. Abstract Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the impact of political democracy on economic growth. This paper challenges the consensus of an inconclusive relationship with a meta-analytic review and a quantitative assessment of the democracy-growth literature. We apply meta-regression analysis to the population of 470 estimates derived from 81 papers on the democracy-growth association. In addition to traditional meta-analysis estimators we use also the bootstrap and clustered data analysis as well as Fixed and Random Effects meta-regression models. Our meta-analysis derives several robust conclusions on the relationship. First once all the available evidence is considered there is on average no evidence of democracy being detrimental to growth. Taking all the available published evidence together we conclude that democracy has no direct effect on economic growth. On the other hand it has robust and significant indirect effects on growth. The results are consistent with democracies being associated with higher human capital accumulation lower inflation lower political instability and higher economic freedom. Additionally there is some evidence that democracies are associated with larger governments and more restrictions to international trade. Our results also point to the existence of countryspecific and region-specific democracy-growth effects. In particular the reported evidence shows that growth effect of democracy is higher in Latin America and lower in Asia. We conclude that whatever other effects democracy may have on

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