TAILIEUCHUNG - A Companion to the History of Economic Thought - Chapter 21

C H A P T E R T W E N T Y - O N E Interwar Monetary and Business Cycle Theory: Macroeconomics before Keynes According to Francis X. Diebold, “A striking and easily forgotten fact is that, before Keynes and Klein, there really was no macroeconomics” . But the rich and varied traditions of monetary and business cycle theory forming the context | CHAPTER TWENTY-ONE Interwar Monetary and Business Cycle Theory Macroeconomics before Keynes Robert W. Dimand Introduction According to Francis X. Diebold A striking and easily forgotten fact is that before Keynes and Klein there really was no macroeconomics in Adams 1992 p. 31 Diebold s emphasis . But the rich and varied traditions of monetary and business cycle theory forming the context for Keynes s The General Theory and the emergence of modern macroeconomics was much more than passing asides of classical and neoclassical value theorists. Economists analyzed the price level real and nominal interest rates and fluctuations in output and employment long before John Maynard Keynes s The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money 1936 transformed the nature and language of their controversies bringing the two bodies of literature focused on prices and cyclical fluctuations into a discourse centered on determining employment and national income. The quantity theory of money which holds that changes in the money supply will for given demand for real money balances eventually change prices in the same proportion is the oldest surviving theory in economics Blaug 1995 antedating Adam Smith s classical economics by at least two centuries. 326 R. W. Dimand The Salamanca school and Jean Bodin used the quantity theory to explain the sixteenth-century Price Revolution the inflation following the silver inflow from the New World Grice-Hutchinson 1952 O Brien 2000 . Douglas Vickers 1959 and Thomas Guggenheim 1989 reveal the contributions of John Locke Richard Cantillon and Isaac Gervaise to understanding velocity of circulation and international adjustment and of John Law to banking. David Hume s 1752 specie-flow analysis of international monetary adjustment through changes in national price levels with short-run changes in real output was the high point of pre-classical monetary economics Humphrey 1986 pp. 128-33 . While Hume linked each country s price level to the

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