TAILIEUCHUNG - Forecasting foreign tourists in Thailand by economic condition for tourism index

This paper set up a new composite index called economic condition for tourism (ECT) index. This index summarizes the information of the macroeconomic variables which effect the demand for tourism in Thailand. | Forecasting foreign tourists in Thailand by economic condition for tourism index International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Technology IJMET Volume 10 Issue 03 March 2019 pp. 144-152. Article ID IJMET_10_03_014 Available online at http ijmet JType IJMET amp VType 10 amp IType 3 ISSN Print 0976-6340 and ISSN Online 0976-6359 IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed FORECASTING FOREIGN TOURISTS IN THAILAND BY ECONOMIC CONDITION FOR TOURISM INDEX Bundit Chaivichayachat Department of Economics Faculty of Economics Kasetsart University Bangkok Thailand ABSTRACT Tourism sector in Thailand has been promoted as a key sector to create economic expansion since the early of 2010s. The increasing in demand for tourism in Thailand induces a significant final demand in tourism related sectors. In order to prepare for the growing in tourism sector the number of visitors should be forecasted. This paper set up a new composite index called economic condition for tourism ECT index. This index summarizes the information of the macroeconomic variables which effect the demand for tourism in Thailand. The methods of composite index are implemented. There three weighted average methods that were used simple average variance decomposition and factor important. Then the ECT index can be used as a leading indicator for number of foreign tourists. The ECT index also act as the important factor forecast the number of foreign tourists. Tourism price in Thailand tourism price in AEC and crime rate are the most important economic factor to determine the ECT index and for the forecasting the number of foreign tourists. The results emphasis that to support the tourism promoting price stability policy and crime reducing policy should be considered. Key words Tourists Leading Indicator Transfer Function Cite this Article Bundit Chaivichayachat Forecasting Foreign Tourists in Thailand by Economic Condition for Tourism Index International Journal of Mechanical Engineering .

• Quản lý dự án
• Economic condition for tourism
• Tourism related sectors
• Price stability policy
• Crime reducing policy
• Number of foreign tourists