TAILIEUCHUNG - Prediction of maximum earthquake magnitude for northern Vietnam region based on the gev distribution

The present work is a continuation and improvement of the application of the generalized extreme value distribution to study the seismicity of the Southeast Asia. We have applied the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) method to estimate maximum magnitude value (Mmax) for the earthquake catalog of Northern Vietnam. | Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences 38(4), 339-344 Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences (VAST) Prediction of maximum earthquake magnitude for northern Vietnam region based on the gev distribution Vu Thi Hoan*1, Ngo Thi Lu1, Mikhail Rodkin2, Nguyen Huu Tuyen1, Phung Thi Thu Hang1, Tran Viet Phuong1 1 Institute of Geophysics, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology 2 International Institute of Earthquakes Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, RAS, Moscow Received 1 March 2016. Accepted 15 December 2016 ABSTRACT The present work is a continuation and improvement of the application of the generalized extreme value distribution to study the seismicity of the Southeast Asia. We have applied the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) method to estimate maximum magnitude value (Mmax) for the earthquake catalog of Northern Vietnam. Using this method, we obtain the distribution of maximum earthquake magnitude values. This distribution can be characterized by its quantile Qq(τ) at any desirable statistical level q. The quantile Qq(τ) provides a much more stable and robust characteristic than the traditional absolute maximum magnitude Mmax (Mmax can be obtained as the limit of Qq(τ) as q → 1, τ → ∞). The parameters have been obtained: = - ± ; = ± ; = ± ; Mmax = with the probability of 98% for period 2014 - 2064. Keywords: Maximum magnitude (Mmax), generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), earthquake prediction, seismic hazard. ©2016 Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology 1. Introduction1 The NorthernVietnam region is the most active tectonic and high potential risk area of Vietnam. The parameter Mmax represents the maximum of possible earthquake magnitude in the study region. This parameter plays a very important role in seismic hazard assessment and mitigation of the seismic risk. Giving a reliable estimate of Mmax, it is comparatively

• Địa Lý
• Vietnam Journal of Earth Sciences
• Prediction of maximum earthquake magnitude for northern Vietnam region
• The gev distribution
• Maximum earthquake magnitude
• Generalized extreme value distribution
• The earthquake catalog of Northern Vietnam
• General characteristics of rare earth
• Radioactive elements in Dong Pao deposit
• The natural tap and thermal waters
• Liquid scintillation counter
• Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the South Central Vietnam
• Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
• The South Central Vietnam
• Recent seismotectonic and geodynamic
• Continuous GPS network in Vietnam
• The total electron
• The South East Asian region
• The continuous GPS network
• The South East Asian equatorial ionization anomaly
• Upper Permian lower Triassic volcanic sequences
• The Hoa Binh area
• northwest Vietnam
• Insignificant cumulative displacement
• Oriented core samples
• An analysis of forest biomass changes
• Geospatial tools and ground survey data
• Yok Don national park
• Central Highlands of Vietnam
• SPOT HRV satellite
• The autumn precipitation
• Tropical cyclone activity
• Central Vietnam and its East Sea
• Sea surface temperature
• Adaptation plans anticipated
• Construction of initial national quasi geoid model VIGAC2017
• First step to national spatial reference system in Vietnam
• Coordinate transformation parameters
• The WGS 84 ellipsoid
• Abnormal features of oceanographic characteristics
• Upwelling Vietnam waters under impact of El Niño events
• Deeper water layers during
• El Niño phase
• The relation between fault movement potential
• Seismic activity of major faults in Northwestern Vietnam
• Fault Movement Potential
• The nearly horizontal trend
• U Pb detrital zircon geochronology
• Sedimentary rocks in NE Vietnam
• Implication for Early and Middle Devoni an Palaeogeography
• LA SF ICP MS techniques
• The western Himalaya
• Preliminary study on phytogeography
• Dipterocarpaceae Blume family in Vietnam
• Dipterocarpaceae Blume family
• Tropical and or slightly passing
• The Mekong River deltas
• Impacts of climate change on erosion and water flow
• The soil and water assessment tool and gis
• Cau river basin in Vietnam
• oil and Water Assessment Tool
• Errors in determination of main parameters of earthquake hypocenter
• The national seismic network of Vietnam
• Main parameters of earthquake hypocenter
• The seismic stations
• The previous studies
• Sea level rise and resilience in Vietnam
• Sea level rise and resilience in the AsiaPacific
• Sea level rise and resilience
• Climate change induced sea level rise
• Spatial distribution of hot days in north central region
• Vietnam in the period of 1980 2013
• Hot days in north central region
• North Center Region
• Debris flow hazard in relation
• Geological environment changes in mountainous regions
• Geological environment changes
• Debris flows in Vietnam
• High arsenic concentration in groundwater related to sedimentary facies
• The Mekong River Delta
• High arsenic concentration
• AOAC laboratory Vietnamese standard
• Assessment of geomorphic processes and active tectonics
• Con Voi mountain range area
• The hypsometric curve analysis method
• The hypsometric curve
• Uptake capacity of metals by Vetiveria zizanioides
• Uptake capacity of metals
• Dong Xam metal production trade village
• Thai Binh province
• Metal production trade village
• Coralline Ba Ca ratios
• Luminescent line records
• Con Dao island
• Mekong river runoff
• Bright luminescent lines
• Simulation of long term variations
• The F2 layercritical frequency f0F2
• The northern tropical crest of ionization at Phu Thuy
• The thermosphere ionosphere electrodynamicsgeneral circulation model
• Long term variations
• Methodology of determining effective porosity
• Longitudinal dispersivity of aquifer
• The application to field tracer injection test in Southern Hanoi
• The groundwater flow
• New discovery of late early ordovician graptolites
• Discussion on stratigraphic sequence of paleozoic sediments
• The Dinh Ca Trang Xa section
• Vo Nhai disctrict
• A digital shoreline analysis system
• Mangrove shoreline changes along
• The Giao Thuy coastal area
• Mangrove shoreline changes and mangrove zoning