TAILIEUCHUNG - Investment Views Asia 1st quarter 2013

Our results based on 1’472 . open-end equity funds between 1975 and 2002 clearly show that the impact of luck on performance is substantial. First, our estimators of the number of funds with differential, positive and negative performance is much lower than those obtained with the standard approach. It implies that our judgement on performance across the different investment categories can substantially differ from the one implied by the standard approach. Second, we find that luck has a stronger impact on the performance of the best rather than the worst funds | Investment Views Asia 1st quarter 2013 BAIXIK Contents Foreword 3 Current market assessment 4 1. Focus Asian outlook 6 Asian selection 8 2. Countries China Hong Kong 10 Singapore 12 Malaysia 14 Indonesia 16 South Korea 18 Thailand 20 Australia 22 Investment management mandates 24 Contacts 25 3. Notes Methodology 28 Glossary 28 Disclaimer 30 Foreword Asia - the bright spot Dear Reader The start of a new year is traditionally a time for crystal ball gazing. We peer into the future with a mixture of hope anxiety and foreboding. Will we stay healthy What challenges will face us at work Will the world stay safe for our loved ones We simply don t know of course. But we are not powerless. By taking sensible precautions we can make it more likely that things will turn out the way we want. This also applies to VP Bank s investment strategy. We cannot change the economic realities but we can still make sensible and rewarding investment decisions based on a careful assessment of risks and opportunities. Economic reality in 2013 will again be rather sombre in many parts of the world. Progress has been made in tackling the eurozone debt crisis but the economic consequences of this financial debacle have left deep wounds in the affected countries and are seriously undermining the performance of the global economy. World trade is stagnating and investment growth is being stifled by uncertainty. The eurozone will register zero growth in 2013 while America will feel the impact of the compromise agreement on circumnavigating the fiscal cliff . We expect US growth in 2013 to lag behind the consensus forecast. It is now clear that the industrialised world is facing a succession of lean years. The 2009 crisis and its economic repercussions were underestimated. The clean-up of public finances and the restructuring of economic models will take longer than even the pessimists expected. The bright spot is Asia. Here too economic momentum is less vigorous than in the past but the .

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