TAILIEUCHUNG - THE EFFECTS OF REPLACEMENT SCHEMES ON CAR SALES: THE SPANISH CASE

Although most car-sharing has been established, been carried on, and has grown in terms of numbers of participants, without any form of public support being provided, the presence of national support could enable car-sharing to develop more effectively. Certain legal restrictions hinder the development of car-sharing at present, although they are probably less of a hindrance than lack of awareness in different organizations which have the possibility to boost the use of car-sharing. Some antiquated legal hindrances to the development of car- sharing should be altered. The favorable development of car-sharing calls for information and education on all levels, as. | INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS. vol. XXX 2 2006 239-282 THE EFFECTS OF REPLACEMENT SCHEMES ON CAR SALES THE SPANISH CASE OMAR LICANDRO European University Institute and FEDEA ANTONIO R. SAMPAYO University of Santiago This paper studies a model of car replacement designed to evaluate policies addressed to influence replacement decisions. An aggregate hazard function is computed from optimal replacement rules of heterogeneous consumers which mimics the hump shaped hazard function observed for the Spanish car market. The model is calibrated to evaluate quantitatively the Plan Prever a replacement scheme introduced in Spain in 1997 finding that the positive effect of the subsidy is high in the short run but small in the long run for both sales and the average age of the stock. Keywords Car scrapping replacement schemes heterogeneous consumers. JEL D12 H31 1. Introduction Over the past recent years Spanish governments have introduced some policy measures aimed at increasing road safety reducing environmental pollution and stimulating car sales by the mean of subsidizing car replacement. We refer to these policies as replacement schemes. The aim of this paper is to study the main effects of such schemes on car sales and on the average age of the stock. To this end we solve a model of car replacement with a continuum of ex-ante heterogeneous consumers where the individual decision to replace is endogenous and depends on car s age. The aggregate behavior of sales is computed This work was initiated during a visit of the second author to FEDEA whose hospitality is greatly acknowledged. The authors thank the financial support from ANFAC and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology research projects SEC2000-0260 and SEJ2004-0459 ECON. The paper benefited from comments of Raouf Boucekkine during a visit of the second author to the Université Catholique de Louvain. We also thank two anonymous referees and the editor for their very helpful comments. 240 INVESTIGACIONES .

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