TAILIEUCHUNG - German banks – a declining industry? Andreas Hackethal

Japan is one of many countries that is reconsidering the role of its postal savings system as it prepares for the financial realities of the 21st century. Postal banks, which were introduced in most industrial countries during the second half of the 19th century or the early part of this century, are generally deemed to have served useful purposes in the past: They made deposit and payment services accessible to lower-income and non-urban households; provided a demonstrably safe deposit outlet in times of uncertainty about private banks; and may have raised household savings rates thus helping to fund both public and private capital needs. But, in every. | CENTERfor C1AL STUDIES No. 2003 27 German banks - a declining industry Andreas Hackethal Center for Financial Studies an der Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universitat Taunusanlage 6 D-60329 Frankfurt am Main Tel 49 069 242941-0 Fax 49 069 242941-77 E-Mail ifk@ Internet http CFS Working Paper No. 2003 27 German banks - a declining industry Andreas Hackethal First Version October 2002 This version March 2003 Abstract This paper is a draft for the chapter German banks and banking structure of the forthcoming book The German financial system edited by . Krahnen and . Schmidt Oxford University Press . As such the paper starts out with a description of past and present structural features of the German banking industry. Given the presented empirical evidence it then argues that great care has to be taken when generalising structural trends from one financial system to another. Whilst conventional commercial banking is clearly in decline in the US it is far from clear whether the dominance of banks in the German financial system has been significantly eroded over the last decades. We interpret the immense stability in intermediation ratios and financing patterns of firms between 1970 and 2000 as strong evidence for our view that the way in which and the extent to which German banks fulfil the central functions for the financial system are still consistent with the overall logic of the German financial system. In spite of the current dire business environment for financial intermediaries we do not expect the German financial system and its banking industry as an integral part of this system to converge to the institutional arrangements typical for a market-oriented financial system. JEL Classification G21 G23 Keywords Commercial banking Germany disintermediation financial system Correspondence should be addressed to Andreas Hackethal Wilhelm Merton Professur Mertonstr. 17 60325 Frankfurt am Main Germany. E-mail Hackethal@ I am .

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