TAILIEUCHUNG - Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions: Can Self-Financing Undo Capital Misallocation?∗

We nd that nancial systems exhibit a robust-yet-fragile tendency: while the probability of contagion may be low, the effects can be extremely widespread when problems occur. The model also highlights how a priori indistinguishable shocks can have very different consequences for the nancial system, depending on the particular point in the network structure that the shock hits. This cautions against assuming that past resilience to a particular shock will continue to apply to future shocks of a similar magnitude. And it explains why the evidence of the resilience of the nancial system to fairly large shocks prior to 2007 (eg 9/11, the Dotcom crash, and the collapse. | Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions Can Self-Financing Undo Capital Misallocation Benjamin Moll Princeton University August 12 2012 Abstract I develop a highly tractable general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous producers face collateral constraints and study the effect of financial frictions on capital misallocation and aggregate productivity. My economy is isomorphic to a Solow model but with time-varying TFP. I argue that the persistence of idiosyncratic productivity shocks determines both the size of steady state productivity losses and the speed of transitions if shocks are persistent steady state losses are small but transitions are slow. Even if financial frictions are unimportant in the long-run they tend to matter in the short-run and analyzing steady states only can be misleading. Keywords aggregate productivity capital misallocation financial frictions. Introduction Underdeveloped countries often have underdeveloped financial markets. This can lead to an inefficient allocation of capital in turn translating into low productivity and per-capita income. But available theories of this mechanism often ignore the effects of financial frictions on the accumulation of capital and wealth. Even if an entrepreneur is not able to acquire I am extremely grateful to Rob Townsend Fernando Alvarez Paco Buera Bob Lucas and Rob Shimer for many helpful comments and encouragement. I also thank Abhijit Banerjee Silvia Beltrametti Roland Benabou Jess Benhabib Nick Bloom Lorenzo Caliendo Wendy Carlin Steve Davis Steven Durlauf Jeremy Fox Veronica Guerrieri Lars-Peter Hansen Chang-Tai Hsieh Erik Hurst Oleg Itskhoki Joe Kaboski Anil Kashyap Sam Kortum David Lagakos Guido Lorenzoni Virgiliu Midrigan Ezra Oberfield Stavros Panageas Richard Rogerson Chad Syverson Nicholas Trachter Harald Uhlig Daniel Yi Xu Luigi Zingales and seminar participants at the University of Chicago Northwestern UCLA Berkeley Princeton Brown LSE Columbia GSB Stanford Yale the 2010 Research

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