TAILIEUCHUNG - AVOIDING SURPRISE IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES

The development and writing of this report presented considerable challenges in terms of both the study schedule and the need to avoid conveying sensitive . vulnerabilities to potential adversaries. Meeting both challenges has been difficult for the study committee and staff, but every effort was made to respond to the stated need of the Technology Warning Division of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) for maximum openness. I wish to express my appreciation to the members of the committee for their contributions to the preparation of this report. The committee is also grateful to the staff of the Technology Warning Division of the DIA for its sponsorship and. | Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances http catalog AVOIDING SURPRISE IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington . Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances http catalog THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street . Washington DC 20001 NOTICE The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This is a report of work supported by Contract HHM402-04-C-0015 between the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Academy of Sciences. Any opinions findings conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author s and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09605-7 Limited copies of this report are available from Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Room 940 National Research Council 500 Fifth Street . Washington DC 20001 202 334-3118 Additional copies are available from The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street . Lockbox 285 Washington DC 20055 800 624-6242 or 202 334-3313 in the Washington metropolitan area Internet http Copyright 2005 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Copyright National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global .

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