TAILIEUCHUNG - Flexibility in Real Estate Investment

As SIAP notes, the organizational structure of many arts groups and institutions makes them ideal leverage points for local, regional and even global connections. They are flexible organizations that function across a range of applications and relationships; they are linked to local and non-local consumers and suppliers; they utilize horizontal business alliances to enrich their workforce, business offerings and customer base. The boundaries between internal and external structures within networked enterprises are more porous than within organizations built along more traditional lines. In the Old City section of Philadelphia, the Clay Studio contains a highly regarded ceramics gallery that draws consumers. | Flexibility in Real Estate Investment Markus M. Harder Clare Hall Judge Business School University of Cambridge A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Flexibility in Real Estate Investment Markus M. Harder Clare Hall Summary Uncertainty about the future can have a considerable effect on current investment decisions. Investment in stages can help in spreading real estate development risk as it offers flexibility for an otherwise inflexible asset class. Here I present a continuous-time model that allows the valuation of a vertical phasing project with n stages as a perpetual compound option. I find that the valuation of such a compound investment opportunity depends on parameters for all future stages whereas the exercise policy per individual stage requires information solely on that stage hence the optimal decision rule is independent of time past stages and future stages beyond the next. Previously no analytical solution to the vertical phasing option existed and similar issues had only been analysed with infinitesimally small steps and with no terminal stage. The solution presented in this research envelopes previous approaches and offers unique insights into flexible design with a finite number of discrete investment stages. To give a broader perspective I compare and contrast the vertical phasing option to other possible investment alternatives and illustrate cases for which the alternatives are most preferable. Because flexibility comes at a cost it must be carefully and separately evaluated for each potential investment opportunity. For a manager the presented threshold policy is straightforward and easy to implement. Through practitioner interviews I offer insights into the current status of real estate investment analysis. Lastly I provide models that have practical relevance and employ a simulation approach to create a refined investment analysis model that can be used by real estate professionals. II Statements of Authenticity and Word

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