TAILIEUCHUNG - REALLY UNCERTAIN BUSINESS CYCLES - NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Small-business owners evaluate most problems in the 2012 survey as they did in 2008, the date of the last Problems and Priorities survey. The major changes that did occur are largely related to the recession and increased regulations. Among problems increasing in importance, “Environmental Regulations” topped the list rising by 20 positions from a rank of 47th in 2008 to 27th in 2012. “Obtaining Long-Term (5 years or more) Business Loans” trailed slightly moving up 17 positions from 73rd to 56th . “Obtaining Short-Term (less than 12 months or revolving) Business Loans” follows moving 14 positions from 72nd to 58th . And. | NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES REALLY UNCERTAIN BUSINESS CYCLES Nicholas Bloom Max Floetotto Nir Jaimovich Itay Saporta-Eksten Stephen J. Terry Working Paper 18245 http papers w18245 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge MA 02138 July 2012 This is a finished version of a prior draft by Bloom Floetotto and Jaimovich which was suspended in 2010 after Floetotto left academia. Any opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the . Census Bureau. All results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. We thank our formal discussants Sami Alpanda Eduardo Engel Frank Smets and Eric Swanson Angela Andrus at the RDC as well as numerous seminar audiences for comments. Funding for this project was kindly provided by the National Science Foundation. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. 2012 by Nicholas Bloom Max Floetotto Nir Jaimovich Itay Saporta-Eksten and Stephen J. Terry. All rights reserved. Short sections of text not to exceed two paragraphs may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit including notice is given to the source. Really Uncertain Business Cycles Nicholas Bloom Max Floetotto Nir Jaimovich Itay Saporta-Eksten and Stephen J. Terry NBER Working Paper No. 18245 July 2012 JeL No. E3 ABSTRACT We propose uncertainty shocks as a new shock that drives business cycles. First we demonstrate that microeconomic uncertainty is robustly countercyclical rising sharply during recessions particularly during the Great Recession of 2007-2009. Second we quantify the impact of time-varying uncertainty on the

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