TAILIEUCHUNG - Quantitative Methods for Business chapter 12

C H A P T E R 12 Accidents and incidence – discrete probability distributions and simulation Chapter objectives This chapter will help you to: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ work out the probabilities for a basic discrete probability distribution calculate the mean and standard deviation of a discrete probability distribution model business processes with the binomial distribution model business processes with the Poisson distribution simulate simple random business processes with random numbers use the technology. | CHAPTER in Accidents and incidence - discrete probability distributions and simulation Chapter objectives This chapter will help you to work out the probabilities for a basic discrete probability distribution calculate the mean and standard deviation of a discrete probability distribution model business processes with the binomial distribution model business processes with the Poisson distribution simulate simple random business processes with random numbers use the technology discrete probability distributions in EXCEL MINITAB and SPSS random number generation in EXCEL become acquainted with business uses of discrete probability distributions and simulation Chapter 12 Accidents and incidence - discrete probability distributions and simulation 375 In this chapter we will bring together two key concepts from earlier chapters. The first of these is the idea of a frequency distribution which shows the frequency or regularity with which the values of a variable occur in other words how they are distributed across their range. The second key concept is that of probability which we considered in Chapter 9. Here we will be looking at probability distributions which portray not the frequency with which values of a distribution actually occur but the probability with which we predict they will occur. Probability distributions are very important tools for modelling or representing processes that occur at random such as customers visiting a website or accidents on a building site. These are examples of discrete random variables as they vary in a random fashion and can have only certain values whole numbers in both cases we cannot conceive of half a customer visiting a website or of an accident happening. We use discrete probability distributions to model these sorts of variables. In studying probability distributions we will look at how they can be derived and how we can model or represent the chances of different combinations of outcomes using the same sort of approach .

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