TAILIEUCHUNG - Import multiplier in input - output analysis

In this research paper, the Keynesian, Leontief’s and Miyazawa’s multiplier concepts are extended in order to decompose the factors that propagate to total import requirements on such variables as domestic intermediate consumption, domestic final consumption, domestic investment and export. | VNU Journal of Science, Economics and Business 25, No. 5E (2009) 41-45 Import multiplier in input - output analysis Dr. Bui Trinh*, Pham Le Hoa, Bui Chau Giang General Statistics Office, No 2, Hoang Van Thu, Ba Dinh, Hanoi, Vietnam Received 5 April 2009 Abstract. In this research paper, the Keynesian, Leontief’s and Miyazawa’s multiplier concepts are extended in order to decompose the factors that propagate to total import requirements on such variables as domestic intermediate consumption, domestic final consumption, domestic investment and export. From these extended concepts, we are able to quantify the direct and indirect import requirements and determine the decomposition factors that induce total import requirements. Along with domestic output multipliers, policy makers would be able to look into and consider the import multiplier as a key determinant in sectoral economic planning and policy formulation. 1. Introduction * time series IO tables (1989, 1996, 2000 and 2005). Imported intermediate inputs are shown in the usual Keynesian foreign trade multiplier analysis as Y + M = C + I + E. That is, the external sector is combined consistently with the domestic sector in the circular flow. Y stands for net national product (or net final demand) that excludes intermediate product demand, while M stands for imported products that include imports of intermediate products. On the other hand, Leontief’s matrix multiplier is devoted entirely to the analysis of intermediate products in the circular flow. Additionally, the Leontief system can regard the household sector as industry whose output is labor income and inputs are consumption products. In this paper, we try to estimate import requirements consistently between Leontief system and Keynesian model based on Vietnam 2. Foreign trade multiplier Based on the traditional Keynesian multiplier on income, the equation is given as: a + a2 + a3 +.+ an = a. (1 + a + a2 + a3+.+ an) = a/(1 - a) (n = 1, ) (1) Where

• Kế hoạch kinh doanh
• Import multiplier in input
• Import multiplier in out put
• Economics and business
• Foreign trade multiplier
• The revised multiplier