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Phân tích kỹ thuật, còn được gọi là "biểu đồ," đã là một phần của thực hành tài chính trong nhiều thập kỷ, nhưng kỷ luật này đã không nhận được cùng một mức độ giám sát học tập và chấp nhận như phương pháp tiếp cận truyền thống như phân tích cơ bản. Một trong những trở ngại chính là bản chất mang tính chủ quan của kỹ thuật phân tích sự hiện diện của hình dạng hình học trong bảng xếp hạng giá trong quá khứ thường trong con mắt của khán giả. . | THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE VOL. LV NO. 4 AUGUST 2000 Foundations of Technical Analysis Computational Algorithms Statistical Inference and Empirical Implementation ANDREW W. LO HARRY MAMAYSKY AND JIANG WANG ABSTRACT Technical analysis also known as charting has been a part of financial practice for many decades but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis. One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis the presence of geometric shapes in historical price charts is often in the eyes of the beholder. In this paper we propose a systematic and automatic approach to technical pattern recognition using nonparametric kernel regression and we apply this method to a large number of U.S. stocks from 1962 to 1996 to evaluate the effectiveness of technical analysis. By comparing the unconditional empirical distribution of daily stock returns to the conditional distribution conditioned on specific technical indicators such as head-and-shoulders or double-bottoms we find that over the 31-year sample period several technical indicators do provide incremental information and may have some practical value. One of the greatest gulfs between academic finance and industry practice is the separation that exists between technical analysts and their academic critics. In contrast to fundamental analysis which was quick to be adopted by the scholars of modern quantitative finance technical analysis has been an orphan from the very start. It has been argued that the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis is not unlike the difference between astronomy and astrology. Among some circles technical analysis is known as voodoo finance. And in his influential book A Random Walk down Wall Street Burton Malkiel 1996 concludes that u nder scientific scrutiny chart-reading must share a pedestal with alchemy. However several academic studies suggest