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Tuyển tập báo cáo nghiên cứu khoa học của trường đại học nông nghiệp 1 đề tài: Driving Forces of Forest Cover Dynamics in the Ca River Basin in Vietnam. | Journal of Science and Development April 2008 31-43 HANOI UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE DRIVING FORCES OF FOREST COVER DyNAMICS IN THE CA RIVER BASIN IN VIETNAM Nguyen Thi Thu Ha Center for Agricultural Research and Ecological Studies CARES Hanoi University of Agriculture ABSTRACT The need for land use and land cover change information has become a focus in current strategies for managing natural resources and monitoring environmental change. In order to investigate the underlying causes of forest cover change over the period 1998 - 2003 in the two upper-most districts of the Ca River Basin remote sensing data was used together with the multiple logistic regression technique. Supervised classification of Landsat imagery captured in 1998 and 2003 was performed and the findings show that over five years the total area of forest cover change was about 12 400 ha of which the total area of forest regrowth was 76 000 ha. The subsequent analysis of the driving forces behind these changes by using the multiple logistic regression technique proved that the Forest Land Allocation policy and natural management practices by humans were the most important factors. These factors were reflected through the number of livestock per area population density and elevation in the forest regrowth model in the model of deforestation they were the implementation process of the land allocation policy food security and livestock density. These predictors have created a very good logistic model for forest cover changes with the RL ranging from 0.22 to 0.68. Keywords Driving forces Land cover Ca River Basin Vietnam 1. INTRODUCTION Tropical forests are nature s most extravagant gardens. Straddling the equator in three major regions Southeast Asia West Africa and South and Central America tropical rain forests are home to many rain forest species and account for approximately 50 of the world s biodiversity Goldsmith 1998 Molles 2002 . The global distribution of tropical rain forests corresponds to
