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Tải xuống
Tỷ lệ sai giảm xuống dưới 1 vì sự vượt trội của autocorrelations tiêu cực ở chân trời còn. Điều này có nghĩa là một bước nhảy hiện tại tỷ giá hối đoái thực tế có xu hướng được bù đắp bởi những thay đổi trong tương lai theo hướng ngược lại. | 9.2. PRICING TO MARKET 297 From the money demand functions it follows that the steady state change in the nominal exchange rate is 1r i S Mi - Ml -Ỉ C - C . 9.171 Adjustment to Monetary Shocks under Sticky Prices Consider an unanticipated and permanent monetary shock at time t where Alt M and MI MI . As in Redux the new steady state is attained at t 1 so that St 1 S Pt 1 P and P 1 P . Date t nominal goods prices are set and fixed one-period in advance. By 9.10 and 9.11 it follows that the general price levels are also predetermined Pt P 0. The short-run versions of 9.141 and 9.142 are 1 0 AM 1 Ct 0 . 9.172 1 0 1 3 AM 1C 1 0 5t S - St . 9.173 1 0 Subtracting 9.173 from 9.172 gives 1 . M. M IP. IP f p p. ÍQ 1 7 1 A Mt - Mt Ct - Ct - 1 - 0 S - St . 9.174 From 9.153 and 9.154 you get PPP Ct Mt C P 9.175 C M C P S - St. 9.176 At t 1 PPP is restored P P S. Subtract 9.176 from 9.175 to get C - C Ct - C - St. 9.177 The monetary shock generates a short-run violation of purchasing power parity and therefore a short-run international divergence of real interest rates. The incompleteness in the international asset market results in imperfect international risk sharing. Domestic and foreign consumption movements are therefore not perfectly correlated. 298CHAPTER 9. THE NEW INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS To solve for the exchange rate take S from 9.171 and plug into 9.174 to get p e 1 p 1 V 1 Z -z p Z X p -2- A 1 - iA A x A 7 u Q. Mt M J Ct C M---------------------r-7------ 7 C C J --------------- ---- 7St. b t Ỉ - b t f 1 2 -I Ị 1 _ - n t 7 7 2 1 p 7 6 1 p Using 9.177 to eliminate C C you get Q p 1 p J T i l d C 1 1 Q 17R1 St p 1 _ Mt Mt Ct Ct 9.178 This is not the solution because Ct C is endogenous. To get the solution you have from the consolidated budget constraints 9.143 and 9.144 Ct nXt z 1 n St Vt z pbt 9.179 n C 1 n x z n v z St p 1 - bt 9.180 201-202 and you have from 9.147 - 9.150 . . . . . Xt z Ct x z Ct Vt z Ct v z Ct. 9.181 Subtract 9.180 from 9.179 and using the
