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People are not naturally good decision makers.We tend to do superficial analyses of the choices available, and then make a quick decision based on personal biases and false assumptions. Not surprisingly, the results are poor-quality decisions. But what is a good decision? How do we know when we are making high-quality decisions with foresight rather than in hindsight? What are the quality standards? | Global Knowledge Expert Reference Series ofWhite Papers Understanding Analytical Bias Why Brilliant Decisions Don t Come Easily or Often 1-800-COURSES www.globalknowledge.com Understanding Analytical Bias Why Brilliant Decisions Don t Come Easily or Often Brian Denis Egan Global Knowledge Instructor PMP Decisions Decisions People are not naturally good decision makers. We tend to do superficial analyses of the choices available and then make a quick decision based on personal biases and false assumptions. Not surprisingly the results are poor-quality decisions. But what is a good decision How do we know when we are making high-quality decisions with foresight rather than in hindsight What are the quality standards A high-quality decision is one in which we recognize and have analyzed the pros and cons of all possible alternatives. The comparison between alternatives provides the decision maker with an understanding of the uncertainties associated with each of the alternatives. Before making a decision we know the possible positive outcomes and negative outcomes of each choice. The best decision in a particular situation is the choice that offers the greatest chance of the most desirable outcome. In order to make such a decision the risks associated with each alternative must be analyzed in a balanced way. Well-informed balanced analysis leads to the kind of decision you would want a brain surgeon to make on your behalf. Quality Decisions High-quality decisions therefore require that you know as much as possible about future outcomes. That is you understand as much as possible about what you are getting yourself into. The risks and rewards associated with each alternative are considered in a balanced and informed way. The key stages of high-quality decisions are therefore 1. Consideration of all possible alternatives 2. Analysis of the risks associated with each alternative 3. Balanced comparisons leading to an objective decision. Natural Decision Making The bad .
