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Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu về y học được đăng trên tạp chí y học Critical Care giúp cho các bạn có thêm kiến thức về ngành y học đề tài: Predictive mortality models are not like fine wine. | Critical Care December 2005 Vol 9 No 6 Kramer Commentary Predictive mortality models are not like fine wine Andrew A Kramer Senior Biostatistician Cerner Corporation 1953 Gallows Road Suite 570 Vienna VA 22182 USA Corresponding author Andrew Kramer akramer@cerner.com Published online 26 October 2005 Critical Care 2005 9 636-637 DOI 10.1186 cc3899 This article is online at http ccforum.com content 9 6 636 2005 BioMed Central Ltd See related research by Le Gall et al. in this issue http ccforum.com content 9 6 R645 Abstract The authors of a recent paper have described an updated simplified acute physiology score SAPS II mortality model developed on patient data from 1998 to 1999. Hospital mortality models have a limited range of applicability. SAPS II Acute Physiology Age and Chronic Health Evaluation APACHE III and mortality probability model MPM -II which were developed in the early 1990s have shown a decline in predictive accuracy as the models age. The deterioration in accuracy is manifested by a decline in the models calibration. In particular mortality tends to get over predicted when older models are applied to more contemporary data which in turn leads to grade inflation when benchmarking intensive care unit ICU performance. Although the authors claim that their updated SAPS II can be used for benchmarking ICU performance it seems likely that this model might already be out of calibration for patient data collected in 2005 and beyond. Thus the updated SAPS II model may be interesting for historical purposes but it is doubtful that it can be an accurate tool for benchmarking data from contemporary populations. Le Gall et al. 1 have described an updated simplified acute physiology score SAPS II mortality model that was customized and expanded using 1998 to 1999 patient data from France. The original SAPS II model 2 has been used to predict hospital mortality in Europe and other parts of the world. SAPS II shares many elements in common with other methodologies