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Bank income and profits over the business and interest rate cycle

Beginning in the 1980s, microfinance pioneers started shifting the focus. Instead of farmers, they turned to people in villages and towns running “non-farm enterprises”—like making handicrafts, livestock-raising, and running small stores. The shift brought advantages: non-farm businesses tend to be less vulnerable to the vagaries of weather and crop prices, and they can generate income on a fairly steady basis. The top microlenders boast repayment rates of 98 percent and higher, achieved without requiring that loans be secured with collateral. The experiences--taking place in cities and villages in Latin America, Africa, and Asia--refute decades of assertions that. | Department of Economics Johannes Kepler University of Linz Bank income and profits over the business and interest rate cycle by Johann Burgstaller Working Paper No. 0611 July 2006 Johannes Kepler University of Linz Department of Economics Altenberger Strasse 69 A-4040 Linz - Auhof Austria www.econ.jku.at johann.burgstaller@jku.at phone 43 0 70 2468 - 8706 - 28706 fax Bank income and profits over the business and interest rate cycle by Johann Burgstaller Johannes Kepler University Linz July 2006 Abstract If and how the conduct of the banking sector contributes to the propagation of aggregate shocks has become a prominent empirical research question. This study explores what a cyclicality analysis of net interest margins and spreads as well as profitability figures can contribute to the discussion. By using time series data for the Austrian banking sector from 1987 to 2005 it is found that many of these measures fall in economic upturns. Net interest income from granting loans and taking deposits from non-banks however evolves procyclically and increases with rising interest rates. Combined with the observation that the margins countercyclical variations are rather small it can be concluded that there is no striking evidence for a financial accelerator caused by the Austrian banking sector. Keywords Bank interest margins business cycles financial accelerator impulse response analysis. JEL classification E 32 G 21. Johannes Kepler University Department of Economics Altenberger Str. 69 A-4040 Linz Austria. Phone 43 70 2468 8706 Fax 43 70 2468 28706 E-mail johann.burgstaller@jku.at. We thank Stefan Fink and Rene Boheim for helpful comments and suggestions and Nikolaus Bock Oesterreichische Nationalbank for data assistance. Remaining errors and inconsistencies are our responsibility. 1 Introduction Financial propagation mechanisms for real and monetary aggregate shocks have been extensively studied in recent years. It has become common sense that financial institutions .