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the overall future quality and condition of human life by improving longer-range global policy and long-term policy analysis. In carrying out this mission, the center concentrates on five broad areas: • • • • Developing new methodologies, or refining existing ones, to improve thinking about the long-range effects of policy options. Developing improved measures of human progress on a global scale. Identifying policy issues with important implications for the long-term future—i.e., 35 to 200 years ahead. Using longer-range policy analysis and measures of global progress to improve near-term de. | shaping the Next One Hundred Years New Methods for Quantitative Long-Term Policy Analysis Robert J. Lempert Steven W. Popper Steven C. Bankes Prepared for Tie RAND PARDEE g CENTER This research in the public interest was supported by a generous grant from Frederick S. Pardee to develop new methods for conducting longer term global policy and improving the future human condition. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Lempert Robert J. Shaping the next one hundred years new methods for quantitative long-term policy analysis Robert J. Lempert Steven W. Popper Steven C. Bankes. p. cm. Mr-1626. Includes bibliographic references. ISBN 0-8330-3275-5 pbk. 1. System analysis. 2. Decision making. 3. Information technology. I. Popper Steven W. 1953- II. Bankes Steven C. III.Title. T57.6 .L46 2003 320 .6 0113 dc21 2003012438 Cover design by Barbara Angell Caslon RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Copyright 2003 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means including photocopying recording or information storage and retrieval without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2003 by RAND 1700 Main Street PO. Box 2138 Santa Monica CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street Suite 202 Pittsburgh PA 15213-1516 RAND URL http www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information contact Distribution Services Telephone 310 451-7002 Fax 310 451-6915 Email order@rand.org PREFACE Is there any practical value in considering the long term 25 50 or 100 years into the future when debating policy choices today If so how is it possible to use these considerations to actually inform the actions we will take in the near term This study is an initial .
