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To trust in one’s rational faculty means to question and to endure doubt. Sometimes the fear of doubt can be stronger than the fear of death, when extreme doubt leads someone to be receptive to the extreme certainty of a violent ideology – the most fashionable of which (though by no means the only one) is currently radical Islamism. The attraction of radical Islamism is similar to the psycho- logical appeal of other secular totalitarian ideologies of the 20th century, in that it dispels all doubt. In the totalitarian regimes of the 20th century, ideology often took the place of religion. | The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change By Kurt M. Campbell Jay Gulledge J.R. McNeill John Podesta Peter Ogden Leon Fuerth R. James Woolsey Alexander T.J. Lennon Julianne Smith Richard Weitz and Derek Mix Project Co-Directors Kurt M. Campbell Alexander T.J. Lennon Julianne Smith CENTER FOR STRATEGIC INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Center fora New American Security Acknowledgements This report was edited by Sharon Burke Jim Miller Whitney Parker and Christine Parthemore of the Center for a New American Security CNAS as well as Richard Weitz Hudson Institute. Additional copy-editing was provided by Vinca LaFleur CSIS. Billy Sountornsorn of CNAS as always supplied creative insights. Cover Image Earth going down the drain 1992 Chris Page 2 Image Polar Bear Ursus maritimus hauling out on the ice floe Water Bay Canada TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 5 Introduction The Methodological Approach of 13 this Study and Previous Research on the Impacts of Climate Change I. Can History Help Us with Global Warming 23 II. Three Plausible Scenarios of Future Climate Change 35 III. Security Implications of Climate Scenario 1 55 Expected Climate Change Over Next 30 Years IV. Security Implications of Climate Scenario 2 71 Severe Climate Change Over Next 30 Years V. Security Implications of Climate Scenario 3 81 Catastrophic Climate Change Over Next 100 Years VI. Setting the Negotiating Table 93 The Race to Replace Kyoto by 2012 Conclusion Summary and Implications of 103 Global Climate Change Endnotes 111 O I EMBER The Age of Consequences The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change By Kurt M. Campbell Jay Gulledge J.R. McNeill John Podesta Peter Ogden Leon Fuerth R. James Woolsey Alexander T.J. Lennon Julianne Smith Richard Weitz and Derek Mix Project Co-Directors Kurt M. Campbell Alexander T.J. Lennon Julianne .
