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THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF AGEING POPULATIONS (A COMPARISON OF THE EU,US AND JAPAN)

Birch (1979) is generally considered to have provided the igniting spark to the area of small business research (e.g., Acs et al., 2008; Landström, 2005). He did so by empirically demonstrating that small firms generated most new jobs in the U.S. economy, which went against the prevailing view at that time. The interest in HGFs originates from this research, as further investigations showed that most small firms did not grow at all, and that job growth emanates from a small number of fast growing firms. In an analogy with the animal kingdom, Birch labeled the fast growing firms “Gazelles”, the. | The Economic Consequences OF Ageing Populations a Comparison of the EU US and Japan K. Me Morrow W. Roeger The authors are economists in the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs ECFIN of the European Commission. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank A. Dramais and C. Denis for their valuable comments and assistance with this paper. Thanks is also extended to H. Rovers for her excellent secretarial help. 1 The Economic Consequences of a geing Populations A Comparison of the EU us and Japan Table of Contents Introduction and Overview Chapter 1 demographic Trends and forecasts 1960-2050 1.1 Economic V Demographic Dependency Ratios Box 1 A comment on Eurostat s Population Projections for the EU 2000-2050 Chapter 2 how is ageing Likely to impact economically main Transmission Channels 2.1 Public Finance Pressures 2.2 Life Cycle Effects on Private Savings Interactions between Public Private Savings Developments The Role of Ricardian Equivalence in determining the final impact of Ageing on National Savings 2.3 Labour force implications of a rise in dependency ratios 2.4 Potential impact on Capital Accumulation and on Technical Progress 2.5 Interest Rate Exchange Rate and Balance of Payments Effects Box 2 Theories of Savings and the Dominance of the Life Cycle Paradigm Box 3 Modelling the Systemic Aspects of Demographic Change The Quest II Approach Chapter 3 quest II Central ageing scenario 2000-2050 Box 4 Wages Labour Taxation and Unemployment Benefits Economic Impact of Different Assumptions regarding the Reservation Wage Chapter 4 quest II policy Scenarios easing the economic burden of ageing in the Community 4.1 Budgetary Prudence The importance of Respecting the SGP 4.2 Labour Market Reform Raising Labour Force Participation Rates Extending Working Lifetimes and Lowering Structural Unemployment 4.3 Promoting Productivity and Endogenous Growth 4.4 Comprehensive Reforms Scenario 4.5 Income Distribution Consequences of Ageing Chapter 5 .