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The impact of higher oil prices on economic growth in OPEC countries would depend on a variety of factors, particularly how the windfall revenues are spent. In the long term, however, OPEC oil revenues and GDP are likely to be lower, as higher prices would not compensate fully for lower production. | Analysis of the Impact of High Oil Prices on the Global Economy International Energy Agency May 2004 IEA 2004 Summary Oil prices still matter to the health of the world economy. Higher oil prices since 1 999 - partly the result of OPEC supply-management policies - contributed to the global economic downturn in 2000-2001 and are dampening the current cyclical upturn world GDP growth may have been at least half a percentage point higher in the last two or three years had prices remained at mid-2001 levels. Fears of OPEC supply cuts political tensions in Venezuela and tight stocks have driven up international crude oil and product prices even further in recent weeks. By March 2004 crude prices were well over 10 per barrel higher than three years before. Current market conditions are more unstable than normal in part because of geopolitical uncertainties and because tight product markets - notably for gasoline in the United States - are reinforcing upward pressures on crude prices. Higher prices are contributing to stubbornly high levels of unemployment and exacerbating budget-deficit problems in many OECD and other oil-importing countries. The vulnerability of oil-importing countries to higher oil prices varies markedly depending on the degree to which they are net importers and the oil intensity of their economies. According to the results of a quantitative exercise carried out by the IEA in collaboration with the OECD Economics Department and with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund Research Department a sustained 10 per barrel increase in oil prices from 25 to 35 would result in the OECD as a whole losing 0.4 of GDP in the first and second years of higher prices. Inflation would rise by half a percentage point and unemployment would also increase. The OECD imported more than half its oil needs in 2003 at a cost of over 260 billion - 20 more than in 2001. Euro-zone countries which are highly dependent on oil imports would suffer most in the short term
