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In this chapter, you learned to: Define the terms state of nature, event, decision alternatives, payoff, and utility; organize information in a payoff table or a decision tree; compute opportunity loss and utility function; find an optimal decision alternative based on a given decision criterion; assess the expected value of additional information. | Chapter 19 Decision Making Chapter Goals Define the terms state of nature, event, decision alternatives, payoff, and utility Organize information in a payoff table or a decision tree Compute opportunity loss and utility function Find an optimal decision alternative based on a given decision criterion When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to: 1 2 3 4 Assess the expected value of additional information 5 Terminology Classical Statistics focuses on estimating a parameter, such as the population mean, constructing confidence intervals, or hypothesis testing. Statistical Decision Theory (Bayesian statistics) is concerned with determining which decision, from a set of possible decisions, is optimal. E lements of a Decision Payoffs possible alternatives or acts numerical gain to the decision maker for each combination of decision alternative and state of nature these are future events that are not under the control of the decision maker Available choices States of . | Chapter 19 Decision Making Chapter Goals Define the terms state of nature, event, decision alternatives, payoff, and utility Organize information in a payoff table or a decision tree Compute opportunity loss and utility function Find an optimal decision alternative based on a given decision criterion When you have completed this chapter, you will be able to: 1 2 3 4 Assess the expected value of additional information 5 Terminology Classical Statistics focuses on estimating a parameter, such as the population mean, constructing confidence intervals, or hypothesis testing. Statistical Decision Theory (Bayesian statistics) is concerned with determining which decision, from a set of possible decisions, is optimal. E lements of a Decision Payoffs possible alternatives or acts numerical gain to the decision maker for each combination of decision alternative and state of nature these are future events that are not under the control of the decision maker Available choices States of Nature There are three components to any decision-making situation: Payoff Table is a listing of all possible combinations of decision alternatives and states of nature Terminology Expected Payoff or Expected Monetary Value (EMV) is the Expected Value for each decision A business example Nortel is considering introducing a new wireless telecommunication device into the market. They are considering three alternatives: I. Build a new full scale plant for manufacturing the new product II. Build a medium size plant III. Do not market the product If they decide to market the product, the annual profit will depend on the market response to the product. Suppose preliminary market analysis indicates that the market response to the product may be highly favourable, moderately favourable, or unfavourable. What decision should they make? Available Choices Build a new full scale plant D1 Build a medium size plant D2 Do not market the product D3 Market response to the product may be highly .
