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A discussion of the requirements for policy-oriented future studies — saliency, credibility, transformability into policymaking inputs, and desirability by the policymaking system.To be salient, future studies should relate alternative futures to present decisions, deal with matters of actual or potential concern, recognize possible future developments, examine critical issues even if unlink | A POLICY SCIENCES VIEW OF FUTURE STUDIES ALTERNATIVE FUTURES AND PRESENT ACTION Yehezkel Dror February 1970 P-4305 A POLICY SCIENCES VIEW OF FUTURE STUDIES ALTERNATIVE FUTURES AND PRESENT ACTION Yehezkel Dror The Harry s Truman Center for the Advancement of Peace The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and The RAND Corporation Santa Monica California ABSTRACT THIS PAPER DISCUSSES SOME MAIN ISSUES OF POLICY-ORIENTED FUTURE STUDIES FROM A POLICY SCIENCES POINT OF VIEW. POLICY-ORIENTED FUTURE STUDIES FACE FOUR MAIN ISSUES A SALIENCY TO POLICYMAKING B CREDIBILITY C TRANSFORMABILITY INTO POLICYMAKING INPUTS AND D DESIRABILITY BY THE POLICYMAKING SYSTEM. RESOLUTION OF THESE ISSUES REQUIRES MANY CHANGES IN THE POLICYMAKING SYSTEM IN FUTURE STUDIES AND IN THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THESE TWO. LIMITING ITSELF TO MAIN CHANGES NEEDED IN FUTURE STUDIES THE PAPER ARRIVES AT FIFTEEN GUIDELINES FOR POLICY-ORIENTED FUTURE STUDIES 1 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES SHOULD BE RELATED TO PRESENT DECISIONS 2 MATTERS OF ACTUAL OR POTENTIAL POLICY CONCERN SHOULD BE DEALT WITH 3 LOOK OUT FUNCTIONS SHOULD BE ENGAGED IN 4 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES OF CRITICAL ISSUES SHOULD BE EXAMINED EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF LINKS WITH THE PRESENT 5 ALTERNATIVE FUTURE VALUES SHOULD BE EXPLORED 6 ALTERNATIVE COMPREHENSIVE FUTURES SHOULD BE DEVELOPED 7 SIGNS OF Any views expressed in this paper are those of the author. They should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of The RAND Corporation or the official opinion or policy of any of its governmental or private research sponsors. Papers are reproduced by The RAND Corporation as a courtesy to members of its staff. This paper was prepared for presentation at the International Future Research Conference Kyoto April 10-16 .
