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As the reader of this book, you are our most important critic and commentator. We value your opinion and want to know what we’re doing right, what we could do better, what areas you’d like to see us publish in, and any other words of wisdom you’re willing to pass our way. As an editor-in-chief for Que Publishing, I welcome your comments. You can email or write me directly to let me know what you did or didn’t like about this book—as well as what we can do to make our books better | PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS Microsoft Excel QUE Conrad Carlberg Contents at a Glance Introduction.1 Predictive Analytics Microsoft Excel 1 Building a Collector.7 2 Linear Regression.35 3 Forecasting with Moving Averages.65 4 Forecasting a Time Series Smoothing.83 5 Forecasting a Time Series Regression.123 6 Logistic Regression The Basics.149 7 Logistic Regression Further Issues.169 8 Principal Components Analysis.211 9 Box-Jenkins ARIMA Models.241 10 Varimax Factor Rotation in Excel.267 Index.283 Conrad Carlberg QUE 800 East 96th Street Indianapolis Indiana 46240 USA Predictive Analytics Microsoft Excel Copyright 2013 by Pearson Education Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book shall be reproduced stored in a retrieval system or transmitted by any means electronic mechanical photocopying recording or otherwise without written permission from the publisher. No patent liability is assumed with respect to the use of the information contained herein. Although every precaution has been taken in the preparation of this book the publisher and author assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Nor is any liability assumed for damages resulting from the use of the information contained herein. ISBN-13 978-0-7897-4941-3 ISBN-10 0-7897-4941-6 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data is on file. Printed in the United States of America First Printing July 2012 Trademarks All terms mentioned in this book that are known to be trademarks or service marks have been appropriately capitalized. Que Publishing cannot attest to the accuracy of this information. Use of a term in this book should not be regarded as affecting the validity of any trademark or service mark. Microsoft is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation. Warning and Disclaimer Every effort has been made to make this book as complete and as accurate as possible but no warranty or fitness is implied. The information provided is on an as is basis. The author and the publisher shall have neither .