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Tham khảo tài liệu 'the four pillars of investing: lessons for building a winning portfolio_4', tài chính - ngân hàng, tài chính doanh nghiệp phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | 60 The Four Pillars of Investing Figure 2-4. Nominal earnings and dividends S P 500. Source Robert Shiller Yale University . 50. This is because of inflation. In inflation-adjusted terms dividend growth may actually be slowing. When inflation is factored in from 1950 to 1975 annualized earnings growth was 2.22 and from 1975 to 2000 it was 1.90 . Clearly the rapidly accelerating trend of earnings and dividend growth frequently cited by today s New Era enthusiasts is nowhere to be seen. This analysis also demolishes another one of the supposed props of current stock valuations stock buybacks which should also increase per-share stock dividends. This is what is actually plotted in Figure 2-4. Bogle s speculative return the growth of the dividend multiple could continue to provide future stock price increases with further growth of the dividend multiple. Why you might ask can t the dividend multiple grow at 3 per year from here yielding 3 of extra return Unfortunately this means that the dividend multiple would have to double every 24 years. While it is possible that this could occur for another decade or two it is not sustainable in the long term. After all if the dividend multiple increased at 3 per year for the next century then stocks in 2102 would sell at 1 350 times dividends for a yield of 0.07 In fact thinking about the future of the speculative return is a scary exercise. The best-case scenario has the dividend multiple remaining at its present inflated level and not affecting returns. It is quite possible however that we may see a reduction in this value over time. Let s say for the sake of argument that the dividend multiple halves from the current value Measuring the Beast 61 raising the dividend from its current 1.4 to 2.8 still far lower than the 5 historical average over the next 20 years. In that case the speculative return will be a negative 3.4 per year for a total annualized market return of 2.8 . Sound far-fetched Not at all. If inflation stays at .
