Đang chuẩn bị nút TẢI XUỐNG, xin hãy chờ
Tải xuống
The rst seven variables contain information about the general state of the economy and help to identify monetary policy and capital in ows shocks. The model includes both short-term and long-term interest rates. In our sample of countries short-term interest rates are largely controlled by central banks. Using movements in nominal short rates to identify monetary policy shocks is standard in VARs that study monetary policy (see eg Christiano et al (1999)). Long-term interest rates, on the other hand, tend to be driven by nancial market outcomes. As a result, one would expect to observe the effects of capital in ows shocks on long rates rather than short. | FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy Glenn D. Rudebusch Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco January 2010 Working Paper 2010-01 http www.frbsf.org publications economics papers 2010 wp10-01bk.pdf The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Macro-Finance Models of Interest Rates and the Economy Glenn D. Rudebusch Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Abstract During the past decade much new research has combined elements of finance monetary economics and macroeconomics in order to study the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the economy. In this survey I describe three different strands of such interdisciplinary macro-finance term structure research. The first adds macroeconomic variables and structure to a canonical arbitrage-free finance representation of the yield curve. The second examines bond pricing and bond risk premiums in a canonical macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The third develops a new class of arbitrage-free term structure models that are empirically tractable and well suited to macro-finance investigations. This article is based on a keynote lecture to the 41st annual conference of the Money Macro and Finance Research Group on September 8 2009. I am indebted to my earlier co-authors especially Jens Christensen Frank Diebold Eric Swanson and Tao Wu. The views expressed herein are solely the responsibility of the author. Date December 15 2009. 1 Introduction The evolution of economic ideas and models has often been altered by economic events. The Great Depression led to the widespread adoption of the Keynesian view that markets may not readily equilibrate. The Great Inflation highlighted the importance of aggregate supply shocks and spurred .
