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Lưu ý: w eighted trung bình của các nước EU w vị tríống tài khoản tích lũy hiệntạitronggiaiđoạn đã vượt quá của khu vực đồng Euro.Nguồn: Ủy ban châu ÂuLưu ý: w eighted trung bình của các nước EU w vị trí ống tài khoản tích lũy hiện tại trong giai đoạn w như dưới đây của khu vực đồng Euro. Nguồn: | European Commission Economic Crisis in Europe Causes Consequences and Responses Note w eighted average of EU countries w hose cumulative current account position over the period 1999-2008 exceeded that of the euro area. Source European Commission Note w eighted average of EU countries w hose cumulative current account position over the period 1999-2008 w as below that of the euro area. Source European Commission Graphs II. 1.5 and II. 1.6 suggest that current account deficit countries indeed have seen their domestic demand strongly contract especially private investment whereas surplus countries have experienced a sharp contraction in net exports. So apparently surplus counties have been hit comparatively strongly by the global trade shock while deficit countries were hit more by the decline in the demand for housing and other credit sensitive items consumer durables at home. This suggests that the crisis may well be prompting adjustment of current account imbalances within the European Union although further developments have to be awaited before drawing any strong conclusions. 1.4. THE IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON POTENTIAL GROWTH Gauging the impact of the crisis on potential growth is important because this is a main determinant of the development of the standards of living in the medium and longer run. It is also an important determinant of the gauge of economic slack - i.e. the output gap - in the short run which in turn defines the room for short-term policy stimulus beyond which inflation pressures are likely to emerge. Conversely if the level of potential output is underestimated the risk of deflation - and the associated case for policy stimulus - will be understated. Potential output is finally an important determinant of the structural or cyclically-adjusted fiscal position the lower potential output the smaller will be the negative output gap and hence the larger will be the structural or lasting component of the budget deficit. 1.4.1. Empirical evidence .
