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Đến năm 1847, bốn phương Tây và các bang miền Nam (Mississippi, Arkansas, Michigan, Florida) đã bác bỏ tất cả hoặc một phần các khoản nợ của họ. Sáu tiểu bang khác (Maryland, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Arkansas, và Pennsylvania) đã mặc định 3-6 năm trước khi trở lại thanh toán. | A History of Money and Banking in the United States 103 Before the Twentieth Century By 1847 four western and southern states Mississippi Arkansas Michigan and Florida had repudiated all or part of their debts. Six other states Maryland Illinois Indiana Louisiana Arkansas and Pennsylvania had defaulted from three to six years before resuming payment. It is evident then that the 1839-1843 contraction was healthful for the economy in liquidating unsound investments debts and banks including the pernicious Bank of the United States. But didn t the massive deflation have catastrophic effects on production trade and employment as we have been led to believe In a fascinating analysis and comparison with the deflation of 1929-1933 a century later Professor Temin shows that the percentage of deflation over the comparable four years 1839-1843 and 1929-1933 was almost the same.83 Yet the effects on real production of the two deflations were very different. Whereas in 1929-1933 real gross investment fell catastrophically by 91 percent real consumption by 19 percent and real GNP by 30 percent in 1839-1843 investment fell by 23 percent but real consumption increased by 21 percent and real GNP by 16 percent. The interesting problem is to account for the enormous fall in production and consumption in the 1930s as contrasted to the rise in production and consumption in the 1840s. It seems that only the initial months of the contraction worked a hardship on the American public and that most of the earlier deflation was a period of economic growth. Temin properly suggests that the reason can be found in the downward flexibility of prices in the nineteenth century so that massive monetary contraction would lower prices but not particularly cripple the world of real production or standards of living. In contrast in the 1930s government placed massive roadblocks on the downward fall of prices and wage rates and hence 83In 1839-43 the money supply as we have seen fell by 34 percent .
