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Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu về lâm nghiệp được đăng trên tạp chí lâm nghiệp Original article đề tài:"A fire probability model for forest stands in Catalonia (north-east Spain)" | Ann. For. Sci. 63 2006 169-176 INRA EDP Sciences 2006 DOI 10.1051 forest 2005109 169 Original article A fire probability model for forest stands in Catalonia north-east Spain José Ramón GONZÁLEZa Marc PALAHÍa Antoni TRASOBARESb Timo PUKKALAc a Centre Tecnològic Forestal de Catalunya Pujada del seminari s n 25280 Solsona Spain b ForEco Technologies Av. Diagonal 416 Estudio 2 Barcelona 08037 Spain c University of Joensuu Faculty of Forestry PO Box 111 80101 Joensuu Finland Received 25 April 2005 accepted 3 October 2005 Abstract - The study presents a model for the probability of fire occurrence in forest stands of Catalonia. It was developed based on data from the Second Spanish National Forest Inventory II IFN and perimeters of the forest fires that occurred in Catalonia during a 12-year period that followed the II IFN measurement. The model was developed for forest planning which means that the probability of fire was predicted from variables that are known in forest planning calculations. The model is suitable for both even-aged and uneven-aged stands as well as pure and mixed stands. The variables included in the model represented easily measurable forest characteristics like elevation tree size stand structure and species composition. According to the model the probability of a forest stand to become affected by forest fire increased with lower altitudes smaller diameters larger basal areas higher proportion of coniferous species and increasing variation in tree diameter. Although fire occurrence is a highly stochastic phenomenon the model and all its parameters were significant and the test results were consistent. The presented model can be used in stand and forest level optimizations that consider the effect of fire risk on optimal management. fire model forest stands Catalonia Résumé - Modèle de probabilité de feux pour des peuplements forestiers de Catalogne Nord-Est de l Espagne . Cette étude présente un modèle pour les probabilités d occurrence des feux .
