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Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies

However, while this phenomenon has gained more attention over the past years, as Prasad et al. (2007) remark, this fact even seems to hold over a longer period. Over the whole period from 1970 to 2000, developing countries and emerging markets with more favourable and even positive current account positions (which implies net capital exports of these countries) have recorded higher per-capita GDP growth rates. In addition, the growth process of these capital-exporting countries has been rather capital intensive: Even though not all countries have recorded an investment to GDP ratio as high as in China, all of the fast. | WP 05 151 IMF Working Paper Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies Paul Hilbers Inci Otker-Robe Ceyla Pazarbasioglu and Gudrun Johnsen INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2005 International Monetary Fund WP 05 151 IMF Working Paper Monetary and Financial Systems Department Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies Prepared by Paul Hilbers Inci Otker-Robe Ceyla Pazarbasioglu and Gudrun Johnsen1 July 2005 Abstract This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author s and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author s and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper reviews trends in bank lending to the private sector with a particular focus on Central and Eastern European countries and finds that rapid growth of private sector credit continues to be a key challenge for most of these countries. The paper discusses possible implications for economic and financial stability and the policy options available to counter and reduce these risks. It argues that the authorities will need to focus on the implications for both the macro economy and the financial system and depending on their assessment may need a comprehensive policy response comprising a mix of macro and prudential policies. In particular where there are limitations to the effective use of monetary and fiscal measures supervisory and prudential policy responses will have a key role in addressing financial stability concerns. JEL Classification Numbers E44 E51 G21 Keywords credit growth financial stability supervisory and prudential policies Author s E-Mail Address philbers@imf.org iotker@imf.org cpazarbasioglu@imf.org gjohnsen@imf.org 1 The authors are grateful for comments from Marta Castello-Branco Sean Craig Charles Enoch