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In the middle of the 20th century, we saw our planet from space for the first time. Historians may eventually find that this vision had a greater impact on thought than did the Copernican revolution of the 16th century, which upset the human self-image by revealing that the Earth is not the centre of the universe. From space, we see a small and fragile ball dominated not by human activity and edifice but by a pattern of clouds, oceans, greenery, and soils. Humanity's inability to fit its activities into that pattern is changing planetary systems, fundamentally. Many such changes are accompanied by life-threatening hazards. This. | Population Development and Environment on the Yucatan Peninsula From Ancient Maya to 2030 Wolfgang Lutz Leonel Prieto and Warren Sanderson Editors RR-00-14 July 2000 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austria Tel 43 2236 807 Fax 43 2236 73148 E-mail publications@iiasa.ac.at Web www.iiasa.ac.at International Standard Book Number 3-7045-0138-7 Research Reports which record research conducted at IIASA are independently reviewed before publication. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute its National Member Organizations or other organizations supporting the work. Copyright @ 2000 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical including photocopy recording or any information storage or retrieval system without permission in writing from the copyright holder. Cover design by Anka James. Printed by Remaprint Vienna. Contents Introduction Understanding Complex Population-Environment Interactions Wolfgang Lutz iv PART I The Evolution of Yucatan 1 1 Social and Environmental Factors in the Classic Maya Collapse William J. Folan Betty Faust Wolfgang Lutz and Joel D. Gunn 2 2 Socioecological Regions of the Yucatan Peninsula Eduardo Batllori Federico Dickinson Ana García Manuel Martin Ivan Gonzalez Miguel Villasuso and Jose Luis Febles 33 3 Recent Population and Education Trends on the Yucatan Peninsula Amarella Eastmond Ana García de Fuentes and Juan Cordoba y Ordonez 54 4 Maya Culture Population and the Environment on the Yucatan Peninsula Betty Faust and Richard Bilsborrow 73 5 The Performance of the Economy of the Yucatan Peninsula from 1970-1993 Juan Luis Pena Chapa Manuel Martin Castillo and Juan Carlos Gonzalez Avila 108 6 A Conceptual Model of the Aquifer of the Yucatan Peninsula Miguel J. Villasuso and Renan Mendez Ramos 120 PART II Modeling the Future of .
