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I have three vivid memories about learning statistics as an undergraduate that all involve misconceptions. Firstly, I remember my lecturer telling me that, after obtaining a result that was not statistically significant, I should conclude that timber harvesting did not have an effect (on what, I cannot remember). While the logic was flawed, I have since realized that it is a misconception shared by many ecologists. | Bayesian Methods for Ecology Michael A. McCarthy Prt -Pr Prt . D -- SPr xPrtD Ị r r Cambium Cambridge www.cambrldge.org 97805218505 75 This page intentionally left blank Bayesian Methods for Ecology The interest in using Bayesian methods in ecology is increasing but most ecologists do not know how to carry out the required analyses. This book bridges that gap. It describes Bayesian approaches to analysing averages frequencies regression correlation and analysis of variance in ecology. The book also incorporates case studies to demonstrate mark-recapture analysis development of population models and the use of subjective judgement. The advantages of Bayesian methods including the incorporation of any relevant prior information and the ability to assess the evidence in favour of competing hypotheses are also described here. The analyses described in this book use the freely available software WinBUGS and there is an accompanying website http arcue.botany. unimelb.edu.au bayes.html containing the data files and WinBUGS codes that are used in the book. The Bayesian methods described here will be of use to ecologists from the level of upper undergraduate and above. MICHAEL A. MCCARTHY is Senior Ecologist at the Royal Botanical Gardens Melbourne and Senior Fellow in the School of Botany at the University of .
