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Ecological Risk Assessment - Part 7 (end)

Theo đuổi toàn bộ phạm vi hoạt động khoa học cần thiết cho bảo tồn đòi hỏi phải tận dụng sáng tạo của tất cả các nguồn tài nguyên tiềm năng. Gell-Mann (1994) Kể từ khi công bố phiên bản đầu tiên của văn bản này, đánh giá rủi ro sinh thái đã trở thành thành lập như là phương pháp chủ đạo để thông báo quyết định liên quan đến việc quản lý của các hóa chất trong môi trường phi nhân văn. Bây giờ, áp lực từ các tiến bộ khoa học và từ những thay đổi trong. | Part VII The Future of Ecological Risk Assessment Pursuing the whole spectrum of scientific activities essential for conservation requires taking creative advantage of all potential resources. Gell-Mann 1994 Since the publication of the first edition of this text ecological risk assessment has become established as the dominant approach to informing decisions concerning the management of chemicals in the nonhuman environment. Now pressures from scientific advances and from changes in policy and public expectations are pushing the practice in different directions. The following are prognostications based on those pressures and a little wishful thinking. Both the advance of science and the pressure of policy are pushing ecological risk assessment to be clearer and more specific in its predictions. Division of an LC50 by a factor of 1000 to estimate a threshold for unspecified ecological effects is justifiable if the science does not support anything more. However the sciences that support ecological risk assessment now provide the bases for more sophisticated methods. Perhaps more important public policymakers increasingly desire assurance that regulations or other management actions are justified. In particular cost-benefit criteria are increasingly applied to environmental regulations. Similarly demands for stakeholder involvement in decision making result in increasing requirements that risk assessors explain what is at risk and what is likely to happen under alternative actions. Hence both capabilities and demands are increasing and assessors must respond. If ecological risk assessors must apply more sophisticated tools and a wider range of data to estimate specific risks those tools and data must be made more available and usable. Otherwise ecological risk assessment will fail to meet the expectations of decision makers and stakeholders. This will require the development of better means of placing information and tools in the hands of assessors in forms that .