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Nguy cơ sóng thần dọc theo bờ biển Việt Tóm tắt: Kết quả của việc phân tích các dữ liệu khảo sát thực địa và các văn bản văn học lịch sử ở Việt Nam tiết lộ rằng có bằng chứng của quá khứ sóng thần tấn công bờ biển Việt Nam. Tuy nhiên, rõ ràng là vẫn không đủ mạnh để xác nhận sự xuất hiện của các sự kiện sóng thần vừa qua tại Việt Nam. Mặt khác, kết quả của nghiên cứu paleotsunami sơ bộ cũng cho thấy có khả năng xảy ra sóng thần tại bờ. | Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering No. 23 November 2008 Tsunami risk along Vietnamese coast Vu Thanh Ca1 and Nguyen Dinh Xuyen2 Abstract Results of the analysis of field survey data and historic literature documents in Vietnam reveal that there is evident of past tsunami attacking Vietnamese coast. However the evident is still not strong enough to confirm the occurrence of past tsunami events in Vietnam. On the other hand results of preliminary paleotsunami study also show that there are possibilities of tsunami occurrence at Vietnam coast in the past. The analysis on the seismic activities and structure of tectonic plates in the South China Sea SCS reveals that there are four areas in the sea with possibilities of having tsunami earthquakes. Based on the computed results by validated models on the generation of the tsunami by earthquake and the propagation of tsunami in the SCS it was found that significant tsunami at Vietnamese coast could be generated by an earthquake with magnitude of larger than 7 at the fault along Central Vietnam shelf and by an earthquake with magnitude of larger than 8 at the Manila Trench. If an earthquake with the magnitude of 7.5 happens at south Hainan Island the maximum height of tsunami at Vietnamese coast can be more than 1.5m. If the earthquake with magnitude of 8.5 happens at Manila Trench the maximum tsunami height from Da Nang to Quang Ngai can be more than 4m and at some places can be more than 5m. The coast with the maximum tsunami height of more than 1m stretches about 1000km from Quang Binh to Binh Thuan. Then it can be concluded that the risk of tsunami in Vietnam is not very large but exists and it is necessary to prepare for the disaster. Keywords Vietnamese coast tsunami risk numerical model 1. Introduction This paper presents analysis results of the authors and other researchers in Vietnam about the tsunami risk at the Vietnamese coastal areas. The paper also provides preliminary study results on .
